Independent investment research

Venture Growth Intelligence

A 25-company, source-backed research pipeline with two separate underwriting cases. Choice is the leading current diligence candidate and has a complete illustrative underwriting model. Medida remains a separate WATCH case. Both have unresolved private-data gaps. All research is independent and unaffiliated with Flashpoint Capital, Choice or Medida AI.

Choice: leading diligence candidate

Restaurant vertical software. Illustrative underwriting; not company financials.

Illustrative analyst assumptions

ADVANCE TO PRIVATE DILIGENCE.

DO NOT RECOMMEND INVESTMENT ON PUBLIC DATA.

Paying restaurants

9,000+

Management-reported (Oct 2026); actual ARR not verified

Hypothetical entry pre-money

$35m

Analyst assumption, not a price

Illustrative base gross IRR

17.55%

Illustrative 25% gross hurdle

Base max entry pre-money

$19.3402m

Conditional scenario price, not a market valuation

Illustrative gross hurdle

25%

Analyst assumption, not a Flashpoint requirement

Choice has meaningful reported commercial scale, but subscription ARR, retention, profitability, transaction economics, capital structure and entry pricing are unverified. Merchant GMV is not Choice revenue. At the hypothetical $35m entry the modeled base case is below the illustrative hurdle.

Open the Choice underwriting model Choice research profile

25-company research pipelineSourced, prioritized, with evidence classes.Priority comparisonChoice, happyhotel and Medida side by side.Nine research documentsByte-for-byte downloads with SHA-256.

Separate investment case

Medida AI: preliminary investment screen

Preliminary research and source-constrained illustrative modeling; NOT a company-verified IC recommendation. Every forward figure is an illustrative analyst assumption; none is company guidance. Medida is a WATCH case, separate from Choice; the two are never combined.

Company

Medida AI

AI-enabled construction / renovation workflow; Tel Aviv / New York

Investment status

WATCH

Researched judgment; not changed by valuation inputs

Reported revenue rate (Dec 2025)

$3.00m

Press-reported annualized rate. Not verified ARR.

2026 actual revenue

Not available

Not in the research package

Primary thesis

Hypothesis requiring diligence, not a finding

A potentially attractive Israeli-founded, U.S.-oriented vertical workflow company, worth a first diligence conversation but not a financing decision.

Smartphone-based measurement could replace selected renovation site visits with remotely generated measurements and three-dimensional visualizations.E04 E05Screen PDF §02
The value proposition is measurable: fewer field visits, shorter cycle time, less installation rework and potentially better conversion.Screen PDF §02
A December 2025 report cited a $4m seed financing and a $3m annualized revenue rate; the website claims 50+ remodeling companies. These are press reports and marketing claims, not verified metrics.E04 E05 E06Screen PDF Decision summary

Critical diligence gaps (P0 gates)

None of these has been satisfied with evidence

Revenue classification UNVERIFIEDIf absent: Cannot claim ARR; revalue as transaction revenue
2026 current trading UNVERIFIEDIf absent: Do not underwrite entry on stale 2025 run-rate
Measurement accuracy COMPANY CLAIM ONLYIf absent: Fundamental product risk, potential rework liability
Customer / logo quality COMPANY CLAIM ONLYIf absent: Reported '50+' may overstate monetized demand
Gross margin and unit costs UNVERIFIEDIf absent: No SaaS multiple without software-grade margin

All 12 diligence gates

Key public evidence

Public statements and self-reported claims, classified by reliability

Medida raised $4m seed funding E04
Caveat: Reported raise, no verified capitalization or date reconciliations
Press-reported information
$3m annualized revenue rate, 35 US states E05
Caveat: Article headline says ARR; body describes annual revenue rate
Press-reported information
Medida says trusted by 50+ home remodelers E06
Caveat: Unknown paid vs trial vs historical logos
Company marketing claim

Read carefully

The “50+ remodelers” statement is a company website claim and is not necessarily 50+ current paying customers. The Dec 2025 figure is an annualized revenue rate; there is no independently validated recurring ARR for Medida.

Modeled entry structure

Illustrative: no evidence this price or structure is available.

Illustrative analyst assumptions

Entry pre-money

$25.0m

2026, analyst assumption

Initial investment

$5.0m

Post-money

$30.0m

Initial ownership

16.67%

Fully diluted, common-equivalent

2029 round (whole company)

$20.0m

at $150.0m pre-money

Pro-rata follow-on

$3.33m

100% of entitlement

Post-financing ownership

16.67%

Total capital invested

$8.33m

Bear / base / bull returns

Annual revenue basis (not ARR). Gross, pre-fee, 2026-2033.

Illustrative analyst assumptions

Investor returns by scenario (illustrative analyst assumptions)
Scenario	2033 revenue	Exit multiple	Enterprise value	Equity proceeds	Total invested	MOIC	Gross IRR	vs 25% hurdle
Bear	$9.66m	2.0x	$19.32m	$3.16m	$8.33m	0.38x	(15.9%)	✗ Below hurdle
Base	$31.35m	5.0x	$156.75m	$25.60m	$8.33m	3.07x	20.6%	✗ Below hurdle
Bull	$107.24m	8.0x	$857.88m	$140.12m	$8.33m	16.81x	57.4%	✓ Clears hurdle

Base-case maximum entry pre-money that still clears the hurdle: $16.97m vs modeled $25.00m entry.

Revenue by scenario

Annual revenue forecast, USD m

Illustrative analyst assumptions

Valuation sensitivity

Base case, 2033 exit. Rows: exit revenue multiple. Columns: entry pre-money ($m). ✓ = gross IRR at or above the 25% hurdle.

Sensitivity of MOIC to entry pre-money and exit revenue multiple
Exit multiple ↓ / Pre-money →	$15m	$20m	$25m	$30m	$35m
3.0x	2.30x	2.05x	1.84x	1.68x	1.54x
4.0x	3.07x	2.73x	2.46x	2.23x	2.05x
5.0x	3.84x	3.41x	3.07x	2.79x	2.56x
6.0x	4.61x	4.10x	3.69x	3.35x	3.07x
7.0x	5.38x	4.78x	4.30x	3.91x	3.58x

Memo and financial model

Original research files, byte-for-byte

Download Preliminary Investment Screen (PDF)Download Illustrative Underwriting Model (Excel)