Interactive valuation

Interactive Valuation

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Assumption controls

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Scenario

Entry

Entry pre-money ($m)

Initial check ($m)

Follow-on financing

Follow-on round size ($m, whole company)

Follow-on pre-money ($m)

Pro-rata participation (% of entitlement)

Follow-on year

Exit

Exit year

Exit transaction costs (% EV)

Gross IRR hurdle

Revenue growth (Base)

2026 bridge growth vs Dec-2025 rate

2027 growth

Annual growth step-down (floor 0%)

Recurring revenue mix (Base)

2026 recurring revenue mix

Annual recurring mix increase

Recurring mix cap

Gross margins (Base)

Recurring gross margin

Usage / non-recurring gross margin

Operating expense intensity (Base)

2026 sales & marketing % revenue

S&M annual step-down (pts)

2026 R&D % revenue

R&D annual step-down (pts)

2026 G&A % revenue

G&A annual step-down (pts)

Exit (Base)

Exit multiple (x annual revenue)

Source assumptions in use

Results use the researched source assumptions. The WATCH recommendation is a researched judgment and does not change with these inputs.

Base MOIC

3.07x

Base gross IRR

20.6%

✗ Below hurdle

Max entry pre-money at hurdle

$16.97m

25% gross IRR hurdle

Modeled entry vs max

$8.03m above

Valuation sensitivity matrix

Illustrative analyst assumptions

Base case, 2033 exit. Rows: exit revenue multiple. Columns: entry pre-money ($m). ✓ = gross IRR at or above the 25% hurdle.

Sensitivity of MOIC to entry pre-money and exit revenue multiple
Exit multiple ↓ / Pre-money →	$15m	$20m	$25m	$30m	$35m
3.0x	2.30x	2.05x	1.84x	1.68x	1.54x
4.0x	3.07x	2.73x	2.46x	2.23x	2.05x
5.0x	3.84x	3.41x	3.07x	2.79x	2.56x
6.0x	4.61x	4.10x	3.69x	3.35x	3.07x
7.0x	5.38x	4.78x	4.30x	3.91x	3.58x

Returns by scenario

Illustrative analyst assumptions

Investor returns by scenario (illustrative analyst assumptions)
Scenario	2033 revenue	Exit multiple	Enterprise value	Equity proceeds	Total invested	MOIC	Gross IRR	vs 25% hurdle
Bear	$9.66m	2.0x	$19.32m	$3.16m	$8.33m	0.38x	(15.9%)	✗ Below hurdle
Base	$31.35m	5.0x	$156.75m	$25.60m	$8.33m	3.07x	20.6%	✗ Below hurdle
Bull	$107.24m	8.0x	$857.88m	$140.12m	$8.33m	16.81x	57.4%	✓ Clears hurdle

Base case revenue and EBITDA

USD millions