Investment decision
Investment Decision
Recommendation (researched judgment)
WATCH
Do not seek IC approval yet. These facts support a first diligence conversation, not a financing decision. A disciplined pass is preferable to inventing private SaaS metrics.
Locked: this recommendation does not move to INVEST when valuation inputs change. Only actual diligence evidence can change it. Hurdle results below do update dynamically.
Reasons to pursue diligence
- The product solves a costly workflow, and the value proposition (fewer visits, less rework) is measurable.
- Founders and footprint fit the Flashpoint geography.
- A reported revenue rate and seed financing make the traction question tractable, so Medida is the lead diligence candidate.
Reasons not to invest yet
- 2026 financials, recurring revenue quality and cost structure are unavailable.
- Measurement accuracy is a company claim only.
- Paying-customer cohorts, capitalization and valuation are unavailable.
- There is no evidence that the illustrative entry price is available.
- At the modeled entry price, the base case falls short of the 25% hurdle (see below).
Conditions for changing the recommendation
- 1Confirm ARR. Reconcile the December 2025 annualized revenue statement with signed contracts, monthly invoices and recurring versus usage-based revenue.
- 2Validate product economics. Independently test measurement accuracy and quantify avoided site visits, remeasurements, reorders and cancellations.
- 3Establish price. Request the actual live financing terms and fully diluted capitalization.
No-go / conditional criteria
| Gate | Acceptable evidence | Consequence if absent |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue quality | Last 18 months actuals by recurring, metered and services with contracts, bank / invoices reconciliation. | Remain WATCH; do not apply SaaS ARR valuation. |
| Accuracy and liability | Independent blind tests including challenging sites and installation callback outcomes. | Reject if physical error / liability makes product non-scalable. |
| Commercial durability | Customer cohorts, churn, usage retention, ACV, 10 interviews and concentration. | Reduce revenue growth, recurring mix and terminal multiple. |
| Unit economics | Fully loaded gross margin, CAC, LTV, sales-cycle and cash burn by channel. | Do not clear Flashpoint LTV/CAC hurdle. |
| Live deal terms | Fully diluted cap table, proposed security, valuation, option pool and future capital needs. | Do not issue a transaction approval. |
Return hurdle comparison
Gross IRR vs the 25% analyst-defined hurdle (not a firm-mandated target)
| Scenario | Gross IRR | Hurdle | Shortfall / surplus | MOIC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | (15.9%) | 25.0% | -40.9 pts | 0.38x | ✗ Below hurdle |
| Base | 20.6% | 25.0% | -4.4 pts | 3.07x | ✗ Below hurdle |
| Bull | 57.4% | 25.0% | +32.4 pts | 16.81x | ✓ Clears hurdle |
Price discipline analysis
Base operating forecast and exit assumptions, same follow-on financing
- Modeled entry pre-money
- $25.00m
- Max pre-money at hurdle
- $16.97m
- Reduction needed to clear
- 32.1%
- Entry vs Dec-2025 reported rate
- 8.3x
- Max pre-money, Bear: $0.00m
- Max pre-money, Base: $16.97m
- Max pre-money, Bull: $161.07m
Significant unresolved issues
12 of 12 diligence gates are not verified
- P0Revenue classificationUNVERIFIED
Needed: Monthly invoices and contracts split by subscription, per-scan, services and implementation. If absent: Cannot claim ARR; revalue as transaction revenue.
- P02026 current tradingUNVERIFIED
Needed: Latest 12 months actual revenue, margin and gross cash burn, reconciled to bank. If absent: Do not underwrite entry on stale 2025 run-rate.
- P0Measurement accuracyCOMPANY CLAIM ONLY
Needed: Blind validation across hundreds of jobs, device types, materials, lighting and field error. If absent: Fundamental product risk, potential rework liability.
- P0Customer / logo qualityCOMPANY CLAIM ONLY
Needed: Signed paid contracts; revenue by customer; pilots vs paying users; logos permissions. If absent: Reported '50+' may overstate monetized demand.
- P0Gross margin and unit costsUNVERIFIED
Needed: Cloud inference cost, human QA, scanning support, warranty liability. If absent: No SaaS multiple without software-grade margin.
- P1Cohort retentionUNVERIFIED
Needed: GRR, NRR, customer churn and scan frequency by monthly cohort. If absent: Cannot validate stickiness / lifetime value.
- P1ROI and workflowCOMPANY CLAIM ONLY
Needed: Hours and site visits saved, installation callbacks, reruns, cancellation changes. If absent: Weak pricing power and expansion economics.
- P1Sales efficiencyUNVERIFIED
Needed: CAC, payback, channel partners, split of outbound, referral and OEM. If absent: Cannot confirm Flashpoint 3x LTV/CAC target.
- P1Competitive durabilityPARTIAL PUBLIC
Needed: Feature comparison and win-loss vs HOVER, magicplan, Canvas/Twindo, other OEMs. If absent: High risk of commoditization.
- P1IP / privacy / accuracy liabilityUNVERIFIED
Needed: Patent position, training data consent, warranty / indemnity, security review. If absent: Adverse legal / operating tail risks.
- P1Cap table and financingUNVERIFIED
Needed: Fully diluted capitalization, SAFEs, preferences, option pool, debt, investor consents. If absent: Illustrative entry price cannot be used as term sheet.
- P22027 demand riskMACRO HEADWIND
Needed: Customer sensitivity to remodeling slowdown, cancellations and renovation volume. If absent: Forecast must stress cyclicality.