Financial forecast
Financial Forecast
Annual revenue and EBITDA build, 2026-2033, calculated programmatically from the seed assumptions. Illustrative analyst assumptions, not management guidance.
Illustrative analyst assumptions
How to read this forecast
2026 revenue is the December 2025 reported annualized revenue rate ($3.00m, press-reported, unverified) times (1 + scenario bridge growth). It is annual revenue, not ARR: there is no independently validated recurring ARR for Medida. The recurring share is an assumption, not a measurement.2026E revenue
$4.20m
40% bridge vs Dec-2025 rate
2033E revenue
$31.35m
Base case
2033E blended gross margin
76.6%
2033E EBITDA margin
18.1%
Base case: annual forecast, USD millions
Every cell is computed from the seed assumptions in this browser session.
| USD millions | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | 2031E | 2032E | 2033E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 40.0% | 55.0% | 48.0% | 41.0% | 34.0% | 27.0% | 20.0% | 13.0% |
| Total annual revenue (not ARR) | $4.20m | $6.51m | $9.63m | $13.59m | $18.20m | $23.12m | $27.74m | $31.35m |
| Assumed recurring revenue % | 45.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | 70.0% | 75.0% | 80.0% |
| Recurring revenue | $1.89m | $3.25m | $5.30m | $8.15m | $11.83m | $16.18m | $20.81m | $25.08m |
| Usage / non-recurring revenue | $2.31m | $3.25m | $4.34m | $5.43m | $6.37m | $6.94m | $6.94m | $6.27m |
| Recurring gross profit | $1.55m | $2.67m | $4.35m | $6.68m | $9.70m | $13.27m | $17.06m | $20.57m |
| Usage gross profit | $1.27m | $1.79m | $2.38m | $2.99m | $3.50m | $3.81m | $3.81m | $3.45m |
| Blended gross profit | $2.82m | $4.46m | $6.73m | $9.67m | $13.21m | $17.08m | $20.88m | $24.01m |
| Blended gross margin | 67.2% | 68.5% | 69.8% | 71.2% | 72.5% | 73.9% | 75.3% | 76.6% |
| Sales & marketing | $2.52m | $3.58m | $4.82m | $6.11m | $7.28m | $8.09m | $8.32m | $7.84m |
| Research & development | $1.89m | $2.70m | $3.66m | $4.69m | $5.64m | $6.36m | $6.66m | $6.43m |
| General & administrative | $1.13m | $1.63m | $2.22m | $2.85m | $3.46m | $3.93m | $4.16m | $4.08m |
| EBITDA | ($2.72m) | ($3.45m) | ($3.96m) | ($3.98m) | ($3.18m) | ($1.29m) | $1.73m | $5.67m |
| EBITDA margin | (64.8%) | (53.0%) | (41.1%) | (29.3%) | (17.4%) | (5.6%) | 6.3% | 18.1% |
Scenario comparison
2033E
| Scenario | Revenue | Gross margin | EBITDA | EBITDA margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $9.66m | 54.9% | ($3.10m) | (32.1%) |
| Base | $31.35m | 76.6% | $5.67m | 18.1% |
| Bull | $107.24m | 83.9% | $48.68m | 45.4% |
Edit Base case assumptions (browser memory only)
Source: Flashpoint Venture Growth Intelligence seed data, analyst_assumptions.scenario_assumptions. Mirrors the workbook Forecast sheet.