{
  "project_name": "Flashpoint Venture Growth Intelligence",
  "as_of": "2026-11-01",
  "independent_analyst_project": true,
  "status": "Preliminary research and source-constrained illustrative modeling; NOT a company-verified IC recommendation",
  "public_sources_only": true,
  "firm_mandate": {
    "initial_check_min_usd_m": 1,
    "initial_check_max_usd_m": 10,
    "target_min_stake": 0.05,
    "reported_arr_threshold_usd_m": 3,
    "ltv_cac_target_min": 3,
    "typical_hold_years": [
      6,
      10
    ],
    "source_url": "https://flashpoint.capital/products/venture-growth"
  },
  "companies": [
    {
      "id": "medida",
      "name": "Medida AI",
      "priority": "Lead research candidate",
      "sector": "AI-enabled construction / renovation workflow",
      "geography": "Tel Aviv / New York",
      "traction": "Reported $3m annualized revenue rate in Dec 2025; NOT independently verified ARR",
      "funding": "$4m seed announced Dec 2025",
      "source_ids": [
        "E04",
        "E05",
        "E06"
      ],
      "website": "https://medida.ai/",
      "recommendation": "WATCH",
      "public_arr_usd_m": null,
      "latest_2026_revenue_usd_m": null,
      "commercial_diligence_status": "Unverified"
    },
    {
      "id": "reeco",
      "name": "Reeco",
      "priority": "Alternative",
      "sector": "AI hospitality procurement and AP automation",
      "geography": "Israel / US",
      "traction": "Not publicly verified in this research",
      "funding": "$15m Series A Jan 2025; later media cite $30m total",
      "source_ids": [
        "E12",
        "E13"
      ],
      "website": "https://www.reeco.io/",
      "recommendation": "FURTHER SCREEN",
      "public_arr_usd_m": null,
      "latest_2026_revenue_usd_m": null
    },
    {
      "id": "leancon",
      "name": "LeanCon",
      "priority": "Early watch",
      "sector": "AI-enabled preconstruction planning",
      "geography": "Israel",
      "traction": "Not publicly verified in this research",
      "funding": "$6m seed reported in 2025",
      "source_ids": [
        "E14"
      ],
      "recommendation": "STAGE VERIFICATION",
      "public_arr_usd_m": null,
      "latest_2026_revenue_usd_m": null
    }
  ],
  "public_anchors": {
    "dec_2025_annualized_revenue_rate_usd_m": 3,
    "dec_2025_announced_seed_usd_m": 4,
    "dec_2025_us_states": 35,
    "company_website_minimum_logos_claim": 50,
    "strictly_not_confirmed_arr": true
  },
  "analyst_assumptions": {
    "scenario_assumptions": {
      "bear": {
        "2026_bridge_growth": 0.15,
        "2027_growth": 0.25,
        "annual_growth_step_down": 0.03,
        "exit_revenue_multiple": 2,
        "2026_recurring_share": 0.25,
        "annual_recurring_share_increase": 0.02,
        "recurring_gross_margin": 0.75,
        "usage_gross_margin": 0.42,
        "2026_sales_marketing_ratio": 0.7,
        "annual_sales_marketing_ratio_step_down": 0.04,
        "2026_rd_ratio": 0.5,
        "annual_rd_ratio_step_down": 0.03,
        "2026_ga_ratio": 0.3,
        "annual_ga_ratio_step_down": 0.02,
        "recurring_share_cap": 0.75
      },
      "base": {
        "2026_bridge_growth": 0.4,
        "2027_growth": 0.55,
        "annual_growth_step_down": 0.07,
        "exit_revenue_multiple": 5,
        "2026_recurring_share": 0.45,
        "annual_recurring_share_increase": 0.05,
        "recurring_gross_margin": 0.82,
        "usage_gross_margin": 0.55,
        "2026_sales_marketing_ratio": 0.6,
        "annual_sales_marketing_ratio_step_down": 0.05,
        "2026_rd_ratio": 0.45,
        "annual_rd_ratio_step_down": 0.035,
        "2026_ga_ratio": 0.27,
        "annual_ga_ratio_step_down": 0.02,
        "recurring_share_cap": 0.85
      },
      "bull": {
        "2026_bridge_growth": 0.65,
        "2027_growth": 0.8,
        "annual_growth_step_down": 0.08,
        "exit_revenue_multiple": 8,
        "2026_recurring_share": 0.6,
        "annual_recurring_share_increase": 0.06,
        "recurring_gross_margin": 0.86,
        "usage_gross_margin": 0.65,
        "2026_sales_marketing_ratio": 0.55,
        "annual_sales_marketing_ratio_step_down": 0.055,
        "2026_rd_ratio": 0.4,
        "annual_rd_ratio_step_down": 0.04,
        "2026_ga_ratio": 0.24,
        "annual_ga_ratio_step_down": 0.02,
        "recurring_share_cap": 0.9
      }
    },
    "transaction": {
      "entry_pre_money_usd_m": 25,
      "initial_check_usd_m": 5,
      "followon_company_raise_usd_m": 20,
      "followon_pre_money_usd_m": 150,
      "exit_transaction_costs_pct": 0.02,
      "gross_irr_hurdle": 0.25,
      "entry_year": 2026,
      "followon_year": 2029,
      "exit_year": 2033
    }
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "id": "E01",
      "claim": "Initial checks $1-$10m, 5%+ stake, $3m+ ARR",
      "source_type": "Firm primary",
      "source_date": "Nov 2026 access",
      "url": "https://flashpoint.capital/products/venture-growth",
      "confidence": "HIGH",
      "caveat": "Mandate not proof that specific deal is actionable"
    },
    {
      "id": "E02",
      "claim": "Target LTV/CAC >3x and 6-10 year holding",
      "source_type": "Firm primary",
      "source_date": "Nov 2026 access",
      "url": "https://flashpoint.capital/products/venture-growth",
      "confidence": "HIGH",
      "caveat": "No actual target portfolio hurdle publicly confirmed"
    },
    {
      "id": "E03",
      "claim": "Anton manages U.S. and Israeli investments; TraceAir director",
      "source_type": "Firm primary",
      "source_date": "Nov 2026 access",
      "url": "https://flashpoint.capital/team/tony-fedorov",
      "confidence": "HIGH",
      "caveat": "Partner coverage does not establish willingness to review Medida"
    },
    {
      "id": "E04",
      "claim": "Medida raised $4m seed funding",
      "source_type": "Press / company statement",
      "source_date": "Dec 10 2025",
      "url": "https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/bj10jmvzzl",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM",
      "caveat": "Reported raise, no verified capitalization or date reconciliations"
    },
    {
      "id": "E05",
      "claim": "$3m annualized revenue rate, 35 US states",
      "source_type": "Press / company statement",
      "source_date": "Dec 10 2025",
      "url": "https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/bj10jmvzzl",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM",
      "caveat": "Article headline says ARR; body describes annual revenue rate"
    },
    {
      "id": "E06",
      "claim": "Medida says trusted by 50+ home remodelers",
      "source_type": "Company primary marketing",
      "source_date": "Nov 2026 access",
      "url": "https://medida.ai/",
      "confidence": "LOW / SELF CLAIM",
      "caveat": "Unknown paid vs trial vs historical logos"
    },
    {
      "id": "E07",
      "claim": "Medida claims 99.9% measurement accuracy up to 1/8 inch",
      "source_type": "Company primary marketing",
      "source_date": "Nov 2026 access",
      "url": "https://medida.ai/products/accuracy",
      "confidence": "LOW / SELF CLAIM",
      "caveat": "No independent blind test or sample size"
    },
    {
      "id": "E08",
      "claim": "Medida claims 33%+ fewer cancellations",
      "source_type": "Company primary marketing",
      "source_date": "Nov 2026 access",
      "url": "https://medida.ai/products/accuracy",
      "confidence": "LOW / SELF CLAIM",
      "caveat": "Definition, causality and sample unknown"
    },
    {
      "id": "E09",
      "claim": "Harvard expects ~$525b remodeling spend, largely flat to late 2027",
      "source_type": "Research primary",
      "source_date": "Oct 22 2026",
      "url": "https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/press-releases/remodeling-spending-continues-stagnate",
      "confidence": "HIGH",
      "caveat": "Broader spend is NOT market size for measurement software"
    },
    {
      "id": "E10",
      "claim": "HOVER offers phone-based measures and per project pricing",
      "source_type": "Competitor primary",
      "source_date": "Nov 2026 access",
      "url": "https://hover.to/pricing/",
      "confidence": "HIGH",
      "caveat": "Published plans, not apples-to-apples benchmark"
    },
    {
      "id": "E11",
      "claim": "magicplan offers measurement, floorplan, project-based price",
      "source_type": "Competitor primary",
      "source_date": "Nov 2026 access",
      "url": "https://magicplan.app/pricing",
      "confidence": "HIGH",
      "caveat": "Product scope and accuracy differ"
    },
    {
      "id": "E12",
      "claim": "Reeco raised $15m Series A in 2025",
      "source_type": "Company press release",
      "source_date": "Jan 15 2025",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/reeco-raises-15m-series-a-round-to-modernize-hotel-procurement-with-ai-driven-procure-to-pay-platform-302351873.html",
      "confidence": "HIGH",
      "caveat": "Revenue / valuation not public"
    },
    {
      "id": "E13",
      "claim": "Reeco press later reported $30m total raised",
      "source_type": "Press",
      "source_date": "2026",
      "url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/business/article/sjdtdcleme",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM",
      "caveat": "Financing chronology not fully reconciled"
    },
    {
      "id": "E14",
      "claim": "LeanCon announced $6m seed round",
      "source_type": "Press",
      "source_date": "2025",
      "url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/business/article/sjjkkno11wx",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM",
      "caveat": "Revenue not disclosed; likely too early for growth mandate"
    }
  ],
  "diligence_gates": [
    {
      "priority": "P0",
      "gate": "Revenue classification",
      "required_evidence": "Monthly invoices and contracts split by subscription, per-scan, services and implementation",
      "status": "UNVERIFIED",
      "fail_consequence": "Cannot claim ARR; revalue as transaction revenue",
      "category": "Financial",
      "owner": "Investment team"
    },
    {
      "priority": "P0",
      "gate": "2026 current trading",
      "required_evidence": "Latest 12 months actual revenue, margin and gross cash burn, reconciled to bank",
      "status": "UNVERIFIED",
      "fail_consequence": "Do not underwrite entry on stale 2025 run-rate",
      "category": "Financial",
      "owner": "Investment team"
    },
    {
      "priority": "P0",
      "gate": "Measurement accuracy",
      "required_evidence": "Blind validation across hundreds of jobs, device types, materials, lighting and field error",
      "status": "COMPANY CLAIM ONLY",
      "fail_consequence": "Fundamental product risk, potential rework liability",
      "category": "Product",
      "owner": "Technical diligence"
    },
    {
      "priority": "P0",
      "gate": "Customer / logo quality",
      "required_evidence": "Signed paid contracts; revenue by customer; pilots vs paying users; logos permissions",
      "status": "COMPANY CLAIM ONLY",
      "fail_consequence": "Reported '50+' may overstate monetized demand",
      "category": "Commercial",
      "owner": "Investment team"
    },
    {
      "priority": "P0",
      "gate": "Gross margin and unit costs",
      "required_evidence": "Cloud inference cost, human QA, scanning support, warranty liability",
      "status": "UNVERIFIED",
      "fail_consequence": "No SaaS multiple without software-grade margin",
      "category": "Financial",
      "owner": "Investment team"
    },
    {
      "priority": "P1",
      "gate": "Cohort retention",
      "required_evidence": "GRR, NRR, customer churn and scan frequency by monthly cohort",
      "status": "UNVERIFIED",
      "fail_consequence": "Cannot validate stickiness / lifetime value",
      "category": "Financial",
      "owner": "Investment team"
    },
    {
      "priority": "P1",
      "gate": "ROI and workflow",
      "required_evidence": "Hours and site visits saved, installation callbacks, reruns, cancellation changes",
      "status": "COMPANY CLAIM ONLY",
      "fail_consequence": "Weak pricing power and expansion economics",
      "category": "Commercial",
      "owner": "Investment team"
    },
    {
      "priority": "P1",
      "gate": "Sales efficiency",
      "required_evidence": "CAC, payback, channel partners, split of outbound, referral and OEM",
      "status": "UNVERIFIED",
      "fail_consequence": "Cannot confirm Flashpoint 3x LTV/CAC target",
      "category": "Commercial",
      "owner": "Investment team"
    },
    {
      "priority": "P1",
      "gate": "Competitive durability",
      "required_evidence": "Feature comparison and win-loss vs HOVER, magicplan, Canvas/Twindo, other OEMs",
      "status": "PARTIAL PUBLIC",
      "fail_consequence": "High risk of commoditization",
      "category": "Competition",
      "owner": "Investment team"
    },
    {
      "priority": "P1",
      "gate": "IP / privacy / accuracy liability",
      "required_evidence": "Patent position, training data consent, warranty / indemnity, security review",
      "status": "UNVERIFIED",
      "fail_consequence": "Adverse legal / operating tail risks",
      "category": "Legal",
      "owner": "Counsel"
    },
    {
      "priority": "P1",
      "gate": "Cap table and financing",
      "required_evidence": "Fully diluted capitalization, SAFEs, preferences, option pool, debt, investor consents",
      "status": "UNVERIFIED",
      "fail_consequence": "Illustrative entry price cannot be used as term sheet",
      "category": "Legal",
      "owner": "Counsel"
    },
    {
      "priority": "P2",
      "gate": "2027 demand risk",
      "required_evidence": "Customer sensitivity to remodeling slowdown, cancellations and renovation volume",
      "status": "MACRO HEADWIND",
      "fail_consequence": "Forecast must stress cyclicality",
      "category": "Market",
      "owner": "Investment team"
    }
  ],
  "engineering_constraints": [
    "All forecast revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, ownership, cash flows, MOIC, IRR and sensitivity values must be computed dynamically from assumptions.",
    "Clearly label press claims and company marketing claims as unverified.",
    "Do not claim to have sourced 25-40 companies: only 3 currently included.",
    "No LTV/CAC ratio, customer NRR or private cap table figures are available.",
    "Do not invent investors, outreach details, financial results or customers.",
    "Source evidence and active links visible for each important statement."
  ]
}